A new report from the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) challenges the doomsday predictions around AI and job loss, finding that only a fraction of the U.S. workforce faces a realistic risk of full automation.
The research, titled Automation, Generative AI, and Job Displacement Risk in U.S. Employment, draws from the SHRM 2025 Automation/AI Survey, conducted between March and April 2025 with responses from more than 20,000 US workers.
The sample was broadly representative of the American labor force and included questions on automation, generative AI use, and the presence of nontechnical barriers to displacement, such as regulatory, social, and cost factors.
The study estimates that 15.1% of U.S. employment, about 23.2 million jobs, already have at least half of their tasks automated. The research also finds that 12 million jobs rely on generative AI for more than half of their work functions.
But despite these figures, the study concludes that few roles are at genuine risk of full automation.
“Perhaps most significantly, the study found only 6% of US employment, or roughly 9.2 million jobs, is simultaneously 50% or more automated and lacking nontechnical barriers to automation displacement. This suggests that, while AI and automation will continue transforming work, complete job displacement may be more limited than many predictions suggest.”
The data also reveals that 63.3% of jobs include nontechnical barriers that make complete replacement unlikely. These range from regulation and cost-effectiveness to the human element: client preferences for interaction and trust.
“Client preferences emerged as the most significant barrier to automation displacement, affecting 73.6% of jobs with nontechnical barriers.”
Industries heavily reliant on data analysis and decision-making, including information services, finance, and professional services, show the highest adoption of automation and generative AI. Meanwhile, education and healthcare remain among the least exposed sectors, underscoring how human expertise still anchors large parts of the economy.
SHRM’s Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Alex Alonso, Ph.D., says the report aims to reframe how AI’s impact on work is understood.
“This research offers the kind of holistic perspective we’ve been missing on AI and automation in the workplace. Too often the conversation stops at job loss, but the reality is much more complex… What we find is that the future isn’t simply about replacement – it’s about how organizations and workers adapt, transform, and overcome barriers together.”
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