A top Wall Street analyst says the AI boom is still in its infancy and could drive the Nasdaq to historic highs within just a few years.
In a new CNBC interview, Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities says the AI revolution is closer to 1996 than 1999, noting that it is the start of a lasting supercycle, not a bubble.
In 1996, the Nasdaq launched a massive bull market that saw the index climb about 400% in just four years.
According to Ives, AI adoption remains minimal across most global enterprises, giving the current rally far more room to run.
“And it’s got to that point, I’d say, look, 3% of the enterprise in the US have gone down the AI path. None in Europe. You look at Asia, ex-China minimal.”
He also points out that sovereigns are only now entering the field, citing emerging investments across the Middle East and the UK. According to Ives, that lag in adoption means the market is still in its early innings.
“Think about it, it’s more and more enterprises. The rest of the world plays out. Guess what? For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. So it’s US tech that’s going to win.”
Ives argues the economics of AI justify the hype, framing each dollar of compute spending as dramatically accretive. He believes that the dynamic could propel major benchmarks to record levels.
“For OpenAI, for every dollar they put into AMD, they’ll get $12 to $15. Nvidia, it’s the same thing. And I think that’s why this is more of a 1996 moment than a 1999 moment, despite obviously a lot of the worries. And that’s why we think Nasdaq 25,000, Nasdaq 30,000. These are going to be some of the conversations over the next one, two, three years.”
As of Monday’s close, the Nasdaq is trading at 22,941.
Wedbush Securities, the Los Angeles–based investment firm where Ives serves as managing director and senior equity analyst, manages roughly $5.7 billion in assets.
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