Altimeter Capital says the AI trade is entering a phase where stock selection matters more than narratives, as infrastructure spending accelerates at a scale the market still underestimates.
In a new CNBC interview, Brad Gerstner says the firm’s largest exposure is concentrated in AI infrastructure across chips, cloud platforms and data center operators. He reveals the core of Altimeter’s positioning, naming the companies where the firm sees the strongest risk-reward.
“This is a stock picker’s market. So our biggest bet is in AI infrastructure: Nvidia, TSMC, Hynix, Samsung, Amazon, Microsoft, CoreWeave, Google. We think that we’re still very early in the supercycle. It’s hard to believe, but we’re underestimating.”
To support his view, Gerstner points to the explosive growth in capital spending tied directly to AI infrastructure.
“Think about the total CapEx here. In 2023, these companies spent $150 billion on CapEx, building out data centers. This year, over $500 billion.”
He stresses that the spending surge is already locked in, not speculative or theoretical.
“That’s not speculative. That is purchase orders. Those are buildings. That’s power. That’s stuff that we know is coming online, chips that we know are going to get deployed. And frankly, they would buy a lot more if they could.”
The bottleneck, he says, is not money or appetite, but physical constraints around power and facilities.
“But we just don’t have enough powered shell in order for them to deploy more than the six gigawatts, in the case of Amazon, that they’re going to deploy this year.”
Gerstner expects those constraints to keep capital flowing into AI infrastructure for years.
“And so we think that that will continue to play out. It’s where the majority of our bet sits today.”
Importantly, he says Altimeter’s thesis does not rely on valuation multiples expanding.
“We don’t rely on earnings multiple expansion in order to get paid this year. All of these stocks are trading in the mid-20s in terms of their multiples.”
He highlights one name the firm believes the market has discounted too aggressively.
“In the case of something like CoreWeave, which has fallen out of favor, trading at five times EBITDA. We think there’s an opportunity if they just deliver the numbers that we expect them to deliver this year.”
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