Ex-Morgan Stanley managing director Jordi Visser believes that Bitcoin (BTC) has just triggered the single most favorable macro condition based on historical data.
In a new post on X, Visser says April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print at 3.8% means that inflation is now higher than the yield on the US 3-Month Treasury at 3.696%.
If yields on short-dated US Treasuries are negative, investors will likely seek other fast-moving opportunities to protect their funds from inflationary pressures.
According to Visser, the negative yield environment comes at a time when Bitcoin is trying to break out of its 200-day moving average.
“BTC is right up against the 200-day exponential moving average with a trigger today of the negative three-month real yield sign, which has historically been the time to own BTC… I expected a regime shift into a negative real yield environment with uncertainty around the Fed as they also are forced to run the debasement hot.”
Visser also shares data spanning 2,576 days of negative real three-month rates, along with the Fed easing or holding. According to Visser, Bitcoin has generated an annual return of 247%.
Visser appears to suggest that the Federal Reserve is effectively being forced to allow inflation to run above short-term interest rates, a dynamic that has historically been the most powerful tailwind Bitcoin has ever experienced, and one that he believes is now underway.
The Wall Street veteran previously predicted that Bitcoin would begin to ignite sustainable rallies once it soars above $76,000. At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,063, and its 200-day moving average is hovering at around $82,420.
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