The head of digital assets research at VanEck says Bitcoin (BTC) is on a long-term trajectory toward a seven-figure price tag, but warns that the explosion will not come without turbulence.
In a new CNBC interview, Matthew Sigel says the investment management firm’s base case for Bitcoin remains firmly bullish even as the asset’s correlation with traditional markets has reached a multi-year high.
“Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years. But it’s a very cyclical asset. There are no bailouts in Bitcoin. So it’s going to be cycles along the way.”
On the current rally, Sigel says the derivatives markets are sending a signal that distinguishes the upswing from previous speculative surges.
“Right now, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has actually reached a five-year high. So a lot of this is a macro move. And what keeps us encouraged, even at current levels, is that we’re not seeing the froth in the derivatives markets. If you look at the options markets, the futures markets, to us, it still looks like this is a short covering rally, which means positioning is negative. And so we’re feeling pretty constructive.”
Sigel also says demographic trends, along with the behavior of young investors, will likely push BTC to $1 million by 2031.
“Maybe half a decade, I think, is possible. When you look at the demographic trends and the intentions of young investors to allocate to Bitcoin, it’s going to be like the video game industry where 30 years ago it was just kids playing video games. Now Elon Musk plays video games. People don’t quit. They also don’t quit Bitcoin.
We now have the first central bank buying Bitcoin for its reserves. So this is a mega trend, but it’s going to be very volatile along the way.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,043.
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