ARK Invest says Bitcoin conviction buyers have taken advantage of BTC’s plummet in Q1 of this year, gobbling up more coins as other investors panicked.
In the firm’s latest The Bitcoin Quarterly report, analysts led by David Puell say the supply owned by Bitcoin conviction buyers, or long-term investors who aggressively accumulate during price declines, has risen to a level not seen in six years.
According to the analysts, the rise in BTC ownership among the cohort was particularly notable in February when Bitcoin printed a 2026 low at $60,000.
“Supply held by conviction buyers surged from ~2.13 million BTC to ~3.60 million BTC during Q1, a 69% increase. Such aggressive accumulation amid a 22% price decline mirrors historical patterns in which long-term-oriented holders absorb supply during corrections.
The acceleration in accumulation—particularly during February’s trough— suggests that stronghanded buyers viewed the drawdown as an opportunity, not a reason to de-risk.”
Looking at spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), analysts at ARK Invest find that balances have held firm, despite the correction.
“US spot bitcoin ETF balances remained resilient during Q1, fluctuating between ~1.26 million and ~1.31 million BTC. Despite the 23% price drawdown, ETF holders showed no signs of material capitulation, with balances closing March at ~1.29 million BTC—nearly flat quarter-over-quarter. Such stability suggests that institutional conviction remains strong, even amid significant downside volatility.”
As for Bitcoin treasury companies (DATs), ARK Invest analysts say their profit ratios suggest a late-stage bear market.
“The Bitcoin treasury company profit ratio deteriorated from +0.09 to -0.16 during Q1, suggesting that Bitcoin treasury companies moved from modest profitability to unrealized losses. The ratio hit a trough of -0.23 in early February. Prolonged negative profitability could pressure leveraged Bitcoin DATs to sell as a means of shoring up balance sheets or buying back shares trading below net asset value (NAV).
Simultaneously, a ratio at a loss historically has indicated capitulation and oversold market conditions.”
At time of publishing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,468.
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