Crypto analytics firm Santiment believes Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a big rally as retail investor sentiment remains in the gutter.
In a new post on X, Santiment says Bitcoin sentiment has hit extreme lows at exactly the moment most investors would expect euphoria to be setting in, noting that the disconnect is one of the most bullish signals the market can produce.
“Bitcoin sentiment is at an extreme low during a time you may expect FOMO to be trickling in. Despite BTC surpassing $77K today, there are 3 bearish comments for every 2 bullish comments about Bitcoin.”
Santiment says the pessimism stems from news exhaustion, particularly developments in the Middle East, that have been wearing on retail traders for weeks.
“Retail is experiencing quite a bit of fatigue related to the ongoing war and continued ceasefire announcements, which sometimes turn out to be true… and sometimes not so much. So even though there is an end-of-week rally related to Trump’s latest announced ceasefire, retail appears to be taking any news with a grain of salt.”
Far from being a warning sign, Santiment says the widespread skepticism and profit-taking are precisely the conditions that tend to precede a sustained move higher.
“This FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and profit-taking highly increases the likelihood of a continued rally. Many traders are confident that BTC will ‘top out’ around $84K at most. This also is a good sign that a rally can shoot right past the small traders’ expected outcomes, and potentially surge to $90K+. Markets nearly always move opposite to the crowd’s expectations, so avoid following the herd.”
Santiment warns that the outlook remains sensitive to several fast-moving variables that could shift the picture rapidly.
“News can change in a split second. Things can change rapidly, based on whether the war really appears to be winding down, whether the S&P 500 can continue pushing toward more historic all-time highs, and whether the Clarity Act reaches its full passage.”
Bitcoin is trading at $76,349 at time of publishing.
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