Fraud losses tied to synthetic identities are on track to more than double by the end of the decade, according to a new study from Juniper Research.
The report forecasts global losses will surge 153%, climbing from $23 billion in 2025 to $58.3 billion in 2030.
Researchers say the rise stems from criminals using artificial intelligence (AI) to forge convincing personas built from stolen and fabricated data.
Synthetic identity fraud allows attackers to slip past static verification systems by blending real and fake details, opening accounts and stealing funds before detection. Juniper warns that AI tools now accelerate this process, enabling fraudsters to generate identities at scale and remain undetected for longer stretches.
Says Lorien Carter, Senior Research Analyst at Juniper Research,
“The rise in fraudulent transactions has effects reaching beyond fraud loss. The recent spate of banks being fined for failing to correctly identify high-risk transactions, such as Monzo, Barclays, and TD Bank, displays that regulators are taking this issue extremely seriously. Financial institutions must increase investment in their fraud detection teams and technology to avoid further monetary and reputational losses.”
The report also highlights the growing spend on fraud prevention. Financial institutions are projected to allocate $21.1 billion in 2025 to detection and defense tools, with that figure nearly doubling to $39.1 billion by 2030, an 85.5% market expansion.
Juniper Research, based in the UK, provides market intelligence and advisory services to global banks, intermediaries and fintech firms.
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