McKinsey warns that today’s AI technology could theoretically automate activities that account for more than half of all work hours in the US.
The firm’s November report notes that AI agents and robots are becoming more capable of performing cognitive and physical tasks as they learn from massive datasets.
According to McKinsey, the training allows machines to simulate reasoning and respond to a broad range of inputs, and they are now ready to automate the majority of US work hours.
“We estimate that today’s technology could, in theory, automate about 57% of current US work hours. This figure compares the capabilities of existing technologies, including those demonstrated in a lab, with the level of human proficiency required for different work tasks. As technology advances, the picture will continue to evolve and should be updated regularly.”
The firm highlights that its estimate reflects technical potential, not a prediction of job losses, noting that people remain critical to make AI systems work in real settings. McKinsey also notes that AI deployment will not happen overnight based on past tech cycles.
“Factors including policy choices, labor costs, implementation expenses, and development time all influence when and where automation is deployed. Electricity took more than 30 years to spread, and industrial robotics followed a similar multidecade path. As recently as 2023, only about one in five companies ran most of their applications in the cloud, despite the technology being widely available since the mid-2000s.”
Looking ahead, the firm predicts that AI will generate trillions of dollars in economic value for the US.
“By 2030, about $2.9 trillion of economic value could be unlocked in the United States—if organizations prepare their people and redesign workflows, rather than individual tasks, around people, agents, and robots working together.”
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