ARK Invest is pushing back against a viral research note that warned AI could trigger a 10.2% unemployment rate and economic depression.
In a response to Citrini Research’s 2028 scenario, ARK says the “Ghost GDP” thesis misunderstands how capital flows through the economy.
The Citrini report suggested that AI-driven layoffs would spark a downward spiral, as companies cut workers, reinvest in automation, and erode consumer spending power.
ARK Invest notes that while the scenario echoes the concerns of millions of Americans, it falls flat when seen through the lens of the real economy.
“The scenario is vivid, superficially consistent, but fundamentally flawed. A dollar invested in AI is not a dollar that somehow disappears from the economy. Instead, that dollar gets devoted to building data centers, motivating power and paying the staff who deploy, develop, and further research in AI.”
ARK adds that even profits retained within AI companies will eventually find their way back to the economy.
“Even if a portion of that dollar flows through to profits inside AI companies, then the shareholders of those companies will either recycle those profits into additional economically powerful capital investments or spend that profit on end-consumption.”
While Citrini warned of a collapse in consumption, ARK says the macro trajectory could move in the opposite direction.
“Citrini rightly suggests that 10%+ real GDP growth in the latter half of this decade is quite possible. That is not a recipe for a consumption collapse; it’s a recipe for a consumption boom!”
According to ARK, AI will drive the “Great Acceleration,” not the “Great Depression,” predicting that global real GDP growth will soar to as high as 8% by 2030, more than double the IMF’s forecast of 3.1%.
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