Silver’s sharp moves over the past few days have reignited bubble talk across markets, but macro investor and mining entrepreneur Otavio Costa says the sentiment misses the bigger picture.
Costa tells his 286,600 followers on X that the recent volatility needs to be viewed through a long-term lens shaped by supply dynamics, inflation and the broader state of the global monetary system.
He first pushes back directly on the idea that silver is entering bubble territory, despite its wild price swings since December 29, after hitting an all-time high of $84.
“Bubbles in monetary metals don’t form with tight supply and rising structural demand while the global fiat system is in crisis. Silver rarely moves in straight lines. Volatility is part of the process and should be embraced, not feared.”
He also notes that the conditions that kept silver suppressed for much of the last 10 years no longer exist.
“The low-price metal environment of the past decade is unlikely to return. The inflation genie is out of the bottle, and central banks lack the ability to put it back in.”
Even after the rally, Costa says silver’s valuation still does not reflect today’s macro backdrop.
“Despite trading near prior nominal highs, silver remains materially undervalued in a world of fiscal dominance and a structurally weaker dollar.”
He closes by urging investors to look past near-term hype and focus on the broader commodity cycle.
“Let the dust settle and the hype fade. In commodity bull markets, leadership rotates. This game is far from over, in my view.”
At time of publishing, silver is trading at $72. Earlier this week, macro expert Lyn Alden said that she expects silver to witness wild price swings next year. She says she wouldn’t be shocked to see silver pull back to $40 or rally to $100, calling it a “very volatile metal.”
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