A top economist at Goldman Sachs says he holds the contrarian view that the explosive growth in artificial intelligence spending is barely registering in official US economic growth data.
In a new Bloomberg Podcast interview, Jan Hatzius, chief economist and head of research at Goldman Sachs, says the measured contribution of AI to US GDP in 2025 is far smaller than many investors assume.
“Actually pretty close to zero.”
Hatzius explains that a major reason is how GDP accounting treats AI-related spending, particularly imports. He says much of the hardware powering AI, including advanced chips, is imported, which offsets the boost from domestic investment when GDP is calculated.
“So you can look at the contribution of investment spending to GDP growth, but if you don’t net that out against the imports, then you’re going to get the wrong answer.
A second issue, Hatzius notes, is how semiconductors are classified in the national accounts.
“Semiconductors are generally treated as intermediate inputs, not as investments. So they don’t actually show up in the investment numbers.”
When Goldman looks directly at the data being published, Hatzius says the impact is almost non-existent this year.
“When we look at the impact of AI investment on measured GDP growth, on the numbers that are actually being printed, we’re getting only about 20 basis points of contribution over the last three or four years, and pretty close to zero over the last year.”
He cautions that many estimates circulating in markets rely on incomplete calculations or counting activity that is not strictly related to AI at all.
“Oftentimes, it’s just based on looking at some portion of investment spending. Sometimes, there are also other things included in those calculations that aren’t necessarily AI-related. But the big point is that you really need to look at the imports as well.”
Earlier this month, Hatzius said that tax cuts, easier financial conditions and a reduced drag from tariffs will lift the US economy in the first half of 2026. He also said that he doesn’t see AI contributing to US GDP next year, as he believes that the largest productivity gains from the tech are still a few years off.
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