Goldman Sachs Research predicts that the US economy will outperform in 2026, forecasting 2.6% GDP growth as three near-term tailwinds boost activity.
In its 2026 outlook, Goldman projects global GDP will rise 2.8% in 2026, above the consensus forecast of 2.5%.
For the US, the firm expects growth to accelerate to 2.6% versus consensus expectations of 2.0%.
Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius says the bank remains bullish on the US despite calls for capital rotation into the eurozone or emerging markets.
“As has typically been the case since the pandemic, we are most optimistic (relative to consensus) in the US.”
Goldman attributes the expected US outperformance to tax cuts, easier financial conditions and a reduced drag from tariffs. The firm says the impulse from these forces is expected to be front-loaded in the first half of 2026.
As one example, Goldman says consumers are expected to receive around an extra $100 billion in tax refunds in the first half of next year, equal to about 0.4% of annual disposable income. The bank adds that a rebound from the US government shutdown is also expected to provide a boost.
Despite the stronger growth forecast, Goldman says the labor market picture remains soft across developed economies, with job growth now well below 2019 rates. The firm says the disconnect is most pronounced in the US, where job growth may have been negative over the summer.
Hatzius notes that job-market weakness mirrors a sharp downturn in immigration and, in turn, labor force growth, even if that does not fully explain the divergence between GDP growth and employment.
On AI, Goldman says the impact on jobs and productivity has so far been mainly confined to the technology sector, and the firm’s economists expect the largest productivity benefits from AI to be still a few years away.
Goldman Sachs appears to refer to second-order, economy-wide productivity gains of AI, such as the automation of tasks outside of tech firms. But Goldman’s projections seem to be conservative, as the bank does not mention the potential productivity boost coming from the AI buildout that could add incremental GDP via construction, equipment, energy and related services.
Earlier this week, JPMorgan said that AI CapEx is now the second growth engine of the US economy, predicting that investments in the space will shatter $700 billion next year.
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