Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya says that the public listing of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will be bad news for other tech companies.
In the latest episode of the All-In Podcast, the venture capitalist explains that the tech sector has been trading at a premium to non-tech with a valuation gap of about 12x.
Palihapitiya believes that the valuation gap between tech and non-tech will converge once SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic go public.
“These [three] companies need to get out as quickly as possible. And the reason is, every single company that comes after it, all those companies… are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do.
And where will it come from? When you look at this chart, the tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion than the non-tech PE. And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, all three are baking an AI technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector. It will eliminate, and it will cannibalize, and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading.
So if I were a betting man, my first bet is as those three companies come out, these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non-tech PE.”
Palihapitiya believes that the massive valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will be supported by capital rotating out of software and tech companies, triggering a collapse in the tech sector’s price-to-earnings ratio.
“That’s where the money comes from. That’s why I think after SpaceX, these two guys need to get their act together, file quickly, get out and just get the money, fortify their balance sheets and be in a position for everything. Everything that happens after that is a total coin toss.
Because once these three companies are public, I think the blue line will converge to the orange line, and it’s going to be nasty.”
Last week, news emerged that SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, seeking an over $1.75 trillion valuation. Meanwhile, OpenAI and Anthropic are also reportedly gearing up for blockbuster IPOs this year. OpenAI is currently valued at $852 billion, while Anthropic is worth $380 billion.
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