Chris Caso, a senior analyst at Wolfe Research who flagged Micron (MU) before its triple-digit surge, says Nvidia (NVDA) is now mispriced as investors underestimate how much of its upside is driven by pricing power, not hype.
In a new CNBC interview, Caso says Nvidia’s stock has stalled over the past six months despite strengthening fundamentals, creating what he views as an attractive entry point as the market fixates on competition risk rather than execution.
He says the biggest misunderstanding around Nvidia is where its growth is actually coming from.
“Most of this upside, much of this upside, is actually coming from pricing. And I think the concern on Nvidia right now is about competitive pressure. There are others who can do chips in AI. Are they going to be able to maintain their market position? And we think the pricing tells the story there about both the sustainable competitive advantage they have, as well as their ability to sustain the margins.”
Caso notes that Nvidia’s valuation has compressed into a low-20s multiple on 2026 estimates, even as Wolfe Research sees upside to those earnings forecasts.
Looking further out, he points to Nvidia’s next major product cycle as a key driver of incremental value.
“As you go into 2027, they have another big product cycle, the product called Rubin Ultra, where you have more memory on the chip, you go from two GPUs per chip to four GPUs. You increase the power.”
He adds that Nvidia’s strategy is not just about raw performance, but about economic efficiency for customers operating at a massive scale.
“The whole premise of Nvidia right now is, one, delivering value to the customers, providing more performance per watt, more performance per dollar, so that you can do more inference with the same amount of money, which folks like OpenAI surely need, in addition to again maintaining that competitive advantage against everyone else.”
Caso says that the combination of pricing leverage, product cadence and customer value is why he believes Nvidia remains a compelling value play over the next two years, even as the broader AI narrative grows noisier.
At time of publishing, Nvidia is worth $185.81. Meanwhile, MU is trading at $338, up about 300% from its January 2025 opening price of $84.
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