Anthropic warns that it is within the realm of possibility for China to reach near-parity with the US in just a couple of years, and closing the gap could give the country’s cyber force the ability to disrupt critical infrastructure across the world.
In a new report, the Claude creator lays out two possible futures for the global AI race and their implications for national security.
In the more alarming of the two scenarios, Anthropic says Chinese AI labs could close the gap with their US counterparts within months through a combination of factors that are already underway.
“Despite a weak semiconductor production capacity, models trained by PRC (People’s Republic of China) AI labs are only a few months behind US models. Ongoing distillation attacks, overseas compute access, weak SME export enforcement, and a loosening of export controls on American semiconductors have assisted CCP (Chinese Communist Party) efforts. Continued access to US frontier AI for AI R&D have also enabled AI labs in China to close the gap and approach parity with their US counterparts.”
Anthropic says that if China reaches neck-and-neck AI capacity with the US, it could come with severe national and global security consequences.
“The CCP’s integration of AI-enabled cyber capabilities within an already advanced cyber force has sustained the PLA as a menacing cyber competitor. PLA cyber actors have gained additional access to critical and dual-use infrastructure in the US and most countries around the world, enabling them to disrupt critical national security and societal functions.”
According to Anthropic, the US can maintain and widen its lead in AI by ramping up enforcement to eliminate the smuggling of AI chips and tightening controls over foreign data center access. The AI giant also recommends restricting model access and championing the export of American AI.
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