Elon Musk says the AI community is underestimating how much more powerful AI systems can become.
In a recent interview with Peter Diamandis, the Tesla and xAI founder says current models represent only a fraction of what is technically achievable.
“Most people in the AI community don’t yet understand, which is almost no one understands, that the intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing. So I think we’re off by two orders of magnitude in terms of the intelligence density per gigabyte [of what’s achievable], yes.”
To provide a better picture of his claim, Musk points to Tesla’s achievements using an AI4 chip.
“The Tesla AI4 computer that understands the vast complexities of driving in the real world is only ~1/4 the power of an H100. That is what leads me to this conclusion.”
Nvidia’s Hopper H100 is two cycles behind the chipmaker’s next-generation Vera Rubin architecture. President Trump loosened export controls on the Hopper generation and allowed sales to China, as the chips are far behind Nvidia’s latest tech.
Musk also says even if hardware stayed the same, smarter software could massively increase performance.
“That’s just algorithmic improvement. Same computer. And the computers are getting better.”
As for his intermediate-term outlook, Musk says AI is progressing at an exponential rate.
“I think it is like a 10x improvement per year type of thing. A thousand percent. And that’s going to happen for the foreseeable future.”
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