A veteran macro analyst is warning that markets may be mispricing the value of software at a moment when its economic scarcity is rapidly disappearing with the evolution of AI.
In a series of posts on X, Luke Gromen responds to comments from AI researcher David Shapiro about the future of software, arguing that the implications extend far beyond technology and into asset valuations and financial stability.
Says Shapiro,
“You guys realize that all software is about to be free, right? And software is presently the most valuable capital asset, right? Guys?”
Gromen highlights the risk in market concentration, pointing to how heavily global wealth is tied to US equities and big technology firms.
“Fascinating thought process, esp. when one factors in that US equities are ~65% of total equity market cap, & US big tech is ~40% of that number.”
He says that concentration magnifies the impact if software loses its scarcity premium.
“A lot of wealthy people might find they are not as wealthy as they thought (& their lenders would need to find new collateral.)”
Gromen pushes back on skeptics who do not believe that AI will make software free, drawing a historical parallel to past technology disruptions.
“‘The failure is believing the value lies in the software and not all the stuff that has been built around the software’ is why Blockbuster didn’t buy NFLX cheaply when they had the chance.”
He explains that Blockbuster misread the source of value, focusing on its physical footprint rather than the surrounding ecosystem that software enabled.
“‘Who needs to send DVDs thru the mail, when the value is in our stores?’”
According to Gromen, China appears to be showing the future of software, where AI and automation have collapsed the value of coding.
“China’s doing that now and everyone’s pointing out how little money China’s companies make.”
Over the weekend, Google principal engineer Jaana Dogan said that Anthropic’s Claude Code recreated a system in one hour that took her whole team an entire year to build.
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