A prominent Wall Street veteran is warning that Tesla’s (TSLA) valuation is becoming increasingly disconnected from the fundamentals of its core electric vehicle business.
In a series of posts on X, former Goldman Sachs executive Gary Black says Tesla missed even reduced expectations in the fourth quarter, reinforcing what he sees as a troubling multi-year trend.
Black points to Tesla’s latest delivery figures as confirmation that demand pressure is not easing.
“TSLA 4Q deliveries came in below the 423,000 IR-derived consensus. Actual 4Q deliveries of 418,200 were -15.6% year-over-year (YoY) vs 2024 4Q of 495,600 following expiration of the $7,500 EV credit on 9/30.”
He highlights that the weakness extends well beyond a single quarter.
“For FY 2025, TSLA deliveries were 1.636 million, -8.6% YoY, and its second consecutive YoY decline.”
Despite optimism around autonomy, Black says he expects analysts to reset their forecasts lower.
“Consistent with the release, we expect Wall Street analysts to reduce their FY’26 TSLA consensus deliveries estimates of 1.805 million (+10% YoY implied) and FY’26 Adj EPS of $2.20, the progress on unsupervised autonomy notwithstanding.”
Black, now a managing partner at The Future Fund, emphasizes that Tesla’s financial engine remains overwhelmingly tied to EVs, making its current valuation very difficult to justify.
“EVs still make up 77% of TSLA operating profits… TSLA trades at the highest 2026 P/E in the S&P 500 despite two consecutive years of declining EV deliveries and plummeting earnings estimates.”
Black closes with a blunt signal to investors about his stance on the stock.
“We no longer own TSLA. That should tell you everything.”
Report of the Q4 delivery miss sent TSLA tumbling 2.59% on Friday. At time of publishing, TSLA is worth $438.
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