A new McKinsey analysis shows how the AI stack could become one of the largest economic engines on the planet, with three core layers already on track to generate trillions of dollars in annual revenue.
In a new report, McKinsey looks at 18 “future arenas” that could power global growth, with three standing out as the backbone of the AI age: software, cloud and semiconductors.
Together, those layers form the infrastructure behind every chatbot, data center, autonomous system and agentic workflow coming to market.
McKinsey says each layer is expanding at its own pace, but they all share one trait: steep growth curves driven by real-world demand.
It starts with AI software and services, a category that includes foundation models, enterprise copilots, and every application powered by large-scale inference. McKinsey projects revenue between $1.5 trillion and $4.6 trillion by 2040, up from $85 billion today.
Cloud computing follows, as McKinsey estimates cloud revenue will reach $1.6 trillion- $3.4 trillion over the same time frame, soaring from $220 billion today.
Turning to semiconductors, McKinsey says revenue from the chip sector could jump from $630 billion today to $1.7 trillion-$2.4 trillion by 2040, driven by demand for advanced processors and the enormous power required to run modern models.
Taken together, the three layers of the AI stack could reach roughly $10.4 trillion at the top end of McKinsey’s ranges.
But at the top of McKinsey’s list is e-commerce, with the consulting firm forecasting soaring revenue for the sector from $4 trillion today to $14-$20 trillion by 2040.
Other arenas included in McKinsey’s list include robotics, cybersecurity, EVs, digital ads, batteries, nuclear power and more. The consulting firm forecasts that the 18 arenas could collectively generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenue by 2040, or up to a third of worldwide GDP growth.
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