Goldman Sachs says shorting the AI‑driven market means betting against nearly every major force powering US equities right now.
In a new CNBC interview, Tony Pasquariello, head of hedge fund client coverage at Goldman Sachs, says that despite concentration concerns in mega‑cap tech, the biggest winners have earned their leadership.
He says the AI boom is both earnings‑driven and reinforced by structural tailwinds that make it difficult for bears to win.
“There’s no doubt the market’s top-heavy. There’s no doubt it’s concentrated. We know this. Ten companies priced 25% of global equity market cap. And it’s been narrow… You look back since the start of September equal-weighted S&P is dead flat. Semis are up 25 or 30%…
If all someone does is kind of lament the fact that we have a top-heavy market, you’ve missed an incredible opportunity set for the past 15 years.”
Pasquariello says the rally’s foundation isn’t hype, pointing to long‑running performance and fundamental strength.
“If you go back to start 2009… Nasdaq’s up 16 of 17 years. And you ask, why did that happen? Only 10% of that is valuation. 90% was earnings growth or dividends. So quite literally, the stocks at the top of the index have earned their place.”
He adds that betting against the market now means taking the other side of powerful macro forces tied to liquidity, policy and corporate investment.
“If I want to be negative… I’m going to shoot against the Fed… I’m going to shoot against an expected cyclical upturn in the economy. We believe that’s coming in 2026. I’m going to shoot against all of this CapEx… And I’m also going to shoot against the flow of funds. Retail buys the market and corporates buy the market.”
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