A prominent venture capitalist says OpenAI’s consumer dominance may be facing its first serious test based on the latest data.
In a new post on X, Menlo Ventures principal Deedy Das says Google’s Gemini has rapidly gained ground on ChatGPT’s user base, reshaping how OpenAI is positioning itself for the next phase of competition.
Referencing recent traffic data, Das notes that Gemini has grown to more than half of OpenAI’s monthly active users in just a few months.
“This explains OpenAI’s clear strategic shift to coding and enterprise. They’re at a $20 billion run rate, but their consumer business is facing strong headwinds from Gemini, which has grown to >50% of the MAU (monthly active users) of OpenAI from near nothing in November.”
Data shows that ChatGPT had 445.6 million monthly unique visitors in November, while Gemini had 241.7 million.
He relates the shift directly to OpenAI’s recent product messaging, particularly around coding tools and enterprise features.
“This is why Sam [Altman] is all guns blazing talking about all the cool features of Codex instead of the nice image-generating qualities of ChatGPT several months ago. OpenAI will fight hard, and price aggressively to claw back market share in the enterprise to hit their 2026 projections.”
In December, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman highlighted that the firm is seeing massive growth in its enterprise segment, outpacing consumer growth.
Das also notes that capital flows inside the AI ecosystem are shifting, with some major backers of OpenAI now investing heavily in rival model developer Anthropic.
“Meanwhile, many of the OpenAI investors are now funneling money into Anthropic at the latest $380 billion round: Sequoia, Altimeter, Fidelity, Nvidia, Microsoft.
Gotta love competition.”
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