US job openings have fallen to levels typically associated with recessionary periods, according to new data highlighted by market analyst Adam Kobeissi.
In a new post on X, the editor-in-chief of The Kobeissi Letter tells his 1.3 million X followers that US job openings declined by 386,000 in December to 6.5 million, the lowest level since September 2020.
Kobeissi notes that the slowdown has accelerated over the past two months, with job openings falling by a combined 907,000, marking the largest two-month decline since March 2023.
Zooming out, the scale of the pullback becomes more pronounced as he says available job vacancies have fallen by 5.6 million since peaking in March 2022.
“This is now below levels seen before the pandemic in 2018 and 2019, at ~7.0 million.”
Kobeissi adds that the weakening demand for labor is also showing up in the relationship between job openings and unemployed workers.
“As a result, the ratio of available vacancies to unemployed workers is down to 0.87, the lowest since February 2021, and significantly below the pre-pandemic high of 1.24. This is also below the levels recorded during the 2001 recession.
US job market weakness is accelerating.”
Looking at US small businesses, Kobeissi says employment is contracting at an “alarming pace.”
“Small US firms employing 20-49 people shed -30,000 jobs in January, the 5th consecutive monthly decline.
These firms have seen employment contract in 14 out of the last 17 months.
Over this period, payrolls have declined -296,000, to 22.5 million, the lowest since August 2022.
This is also the biggest contraction since the 2020 pandemic.
Small businesses are cutting jobs as if there is a recession.”
Recently, BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder said that while the US economy is motoring along, it is failing a lot of people. He said that young people, low-income workers and small business owners are getting left behind while asset owners and wealthy individuals continue to get rich.
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