Trillion-dollar asset manager Allianz is sounding the alarm about a growing disconnect inside the US economy.
In a new CNBC interview, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, says the economy may be repeating a pattern that has preceded several major downturns, but with a potentially more dangerous twist this time.
El-Erian says his biggest macro concern is the widening gap between strong headline economic growth and a weakening labor market.
“So my biggest worry on the macro is this decoupling of strong GDP from the labor market. This is really consequential in terms of economic, social and political implications. It’s not the first time we’ve seen it. We saw it in the 1990s. We saw it in 2000. We saw it coming out of the Global Financial Crisis.”
What makes the current episode different, according to El-Erian, is the persistence of economic strength alongside labor market strain. He warns that if the gap continues to widen, it could carry heavier consequences than in past cycles.
But he notes that the situation is not inevitable and can still be addressed, but only if policymakers and leaders confront it directly.
“It is one that we can mitigate. But we need to talk about it, analyze it. The last thing we want is for GDP growth to decouple from jobs.”
Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta shows that the US economy is estimated to have grown by 3.7% in Q4 of 2025. In comparison, the economy grew 1.9% in Q4 of 2024.
Meanwhile, the labor market is falling behind, with 7.5 million unemployed people as of December 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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