Bain & Company says AI agents are the next trend to move from novelty to normal, setting the stage for a major shift in how Americans buy goods online.
In a new forecast focused on US retail, Bain estimates that AI-driven “agentic commerce” could grow into a $300 billion to $500 billion market by 2030, accounting for as much as 15% to 25% of total US e-commerce sales.
“Agentic AI is closer than most realize, poised to become part of our everyday [lives] once consumer trust and infrastructure click into place.”
The management consulting firm defines agentic commerce as purchases that are initiated, influenced or completed by AI agents acting on behalf of consumers or retailers, excluding simple AI-assisted search or product discovery tools.
Bain says early adoption signals are already visible. Between 30% and 45% of US consumers are using generative AI today for product research and comparison, while AI influenced about $3 billion in US Black Friday sales, according to Salesforce data cited by the firm.
Despite those early signs, Bain notes that widespread adoption will not be uniform. Most consumers remain hesitant to allow AI to manage an entire transaction end-to-end, particularly for high-consideration purchases.
The firm expects adoption to begin with highly specified, low-friction purchases where shoppers prioritize speed, price, and availability.
“Spec-driven asks (‘cheapest four-pack of Energizer AA batteries by tomorrow’) will flip sooner as shoppers seek to optimize for price, availability, and convenience, quickly disrupting multi-brand retailers. More considered purchases, like apparel or travel, will follow as trust grows.”
Bain says the implications for retailers are significant. By the end of the decade, AI is expected to touch most online shopping journeys in some form, with up to a quarter of transactions being completed by agents rather than humans.
“Leading retailers will determine their agentic commerce strategy today and, in the process, retain as much ownership of data, fulfillment, and checkout as possible.”
The firm’s core message is that agentic AI represents not just a new interface for shopping, but a structural shift in who controls purchasing decisions, positioning AI agents as a central force in the future of US e-commerce.
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