Peter Thiel says artificial intelligence can help return some manufacturing to the United States, but only in narrow categories where automation costs justify the move.
In a new conversation with Joe Lonsdale, Thiel stresses that any reshoring plan depends on a precise understanding of the economics behind robotics and industrial equipment.
The billionaire notes that automation has been a long-running trend, and that AI is only one part of a centuries-long shift.
“You have to always be extremely granular on how expensive the robots are, how expensive the equipment is, because in some sense, manufacturing has been getting steadily more automated for 250 years. And you have had the machines that make the machines. The machines that make the machines are getting smarter and more complicated.”
Thiel says AI represents both a major leap forward and a continuation of that historical process, with select industries now capable of moving production back to the United States.
“And there are ways in which AI is a quantum leap. There is a way in which it is just a natural continuation of this two-century-long process. But yeah, I think there are some parts that can be moved to the US with AI, maybe also if you change some of the environmental rules and some of the other anti-industrial policies we have in the US.”
The co-founder of PayPal and Palantir also notes that a shifting global supply chain with the emergence of AI could open opportunities for emerging market economies to absorb some of the manufacturing away from China.
“But then if parts of this are moved to other emerging market countries, Vietnam is… Look, it is a communist country. It has bad mercantilist policies, but it is not planning to take over the world. And so at the margins, if we can move things from China to Vietnam, that is a big win.”
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