A new McKinsey report warns that AI could upend global banking economics, eroding profit pools by more than $100 billion if banks fail to adapt.
In its Global Banking Annual Review 2025, McKinsey says agentic AI, autonomous systems capable of reasoning and action, is poised to change how consumers and institutions manage money.
McKinsey says early adopters stand to capture lasting advantages, while slow movers risk watching their core revenues vanish as customers turn to digital agents that automatically optimize deposits, credit card borrowing and investments.
“But AI is a double-edged sword, likely to bring cost savings as well as disruption. Agentic AI in particular has the potential to radically reshape banking—and not necessarily to the benefit of the industry as a whole. It could create unprecedented efficiencies and new customer value, but without decisive adaptation by banks, it stands to erode traditional profit pools.”
The consultancy says consumer inertia, which refers to the tendency to choose the same products or services repeatedly out of habit, is a major weakness in the banking industry that will be exposed by agentic AI. McKinsey data shows that $23 trillion of the global total of $70 trillion in consumer deposits is idly sitting in checking accounts with near-zero rates.
The firm warns that agentic AI could erase consumer inertia and drive massive shifts of cash from idle accounts into higher-yield instruments.
“If just 5 to 10 percent of checking balances migrated to top-of-market rates, an action that might be prompted by AI agents, that could reduce the banking industry’s total deposit profits by 20 percent or more…
If banks don’t reposition their business models to adapt, over the next decade or so, bank profit pools globally could decline by $170 billion, or 9 percent. That’s enough to bring average returns below the cost of capital.”
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