A veteran investor who steered Fidelity Overseas Fund to achieve historic performance levels is sounding the alarm about OpenAI’s financial trajectory.
In a new post on X, George Noble lays out a detailed critique of OpenAI’s spending, valuation and long-term sustainability, noting that the numbers behind the AI leader no longer resemble any conventional technology business.
Noble says OpenAI is running one of the most extreme financial gambles in modern tech, as its valuation is completely detached from underlying economics.
“SAM ALTMAN IS PULLING OFF THE BIGGEST THEFT IN TECH HISTORY…
The actual numbers: OpenAI burned $8 billion in 2025. They project burning $17 billion in 2026, $35 billion in 2027 [and] $47 billion in 2028.
Cumulative cash burn through 2029? $115 billion.”
Looking at OpenAI’s valuation and revenue base, Noble says the firm is trading at a multiple never seen before in traditional software benchmarks.
“Yet they’re valued at 65x revenue. At $13 billion in 2025 revenue and an $830 billion valuation, OpenAI trades at a multiple that doesn’t exist in conventional SaaS (software-as-a-service) benchmarking.
Even in 2021, at the peak of the tech bubble, Snowflake only hit 50–80x.”
He adds that OpenAI’s own projections require growth rates achieved by only a few companies in history, while competitors prowl.
“OpenAI projects positive cash flow in 2029 or 2030. That’s assuming revenue hits $200 billion annually.
They need 70-75% growth every year for five straight years.
Only a handful of companies in history have achieved that.
Meanwhile, their market share is eroding. Enterprise AI leadership dropped from 50% to 34% as Anthropic and Google gain ground. Anthropic expects to break even in 2028. OpenAI expects $74 billion in operating losses that same year.”
Noble warns that OpenAI’s dependence on continual fundraising leaves it exposed if investor sentiment shifts.
“The company needs constant fundraising to survive. If markets cool on AI, the entire model collapses. This bait-and-switch scheme is so obvious and yet it succeeds:
Promise world-changing technology.
Burn through investor capital.
Break every promise when the cash gets tight.
The nonprofit mission: Gone
The ‘no ads’ promise: Gone
The safety commitments that got former researchers to resign: Gone
The $100 billion Nvidia deal: Gone
What remains is a company valued at $830 billion that can’t turn a profit, led by a CEO who built his fortune elsewhere while preaching about humanity’s benefit.
That’s the oldest con in Silicon Valley.
NOT innovation.”
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