A legendary Fidelity investor says Tesla’s valuation has drifted far beyond anything supported by comparable businesses or realistic assumptions.
In a post on X, George Noble says he is short Tesla and lays out a sum of the parts framework that he argues puts the stock’s intrinsic value well below current prices.
Noble, the protégé of Peter Lynch, challenges the optimism embedded in Tesla’s robotics narrative, comparing it to companies already operating at scale.
“About that TSLA sum of the parts valuation… Boston Dynamics is estimated to be worth $5 billion. Figure AI recently raised money at a valuation of $39 billion. Both are far ahead of TSLA in the development of robots.”
He says even applying aggressive assumptions to Tesla’s Optimus robot yields only a small contribution to share value.
“Generously imputing the Figure AI valuation to Optimus would imply a value of $12 per TSLA share.”
Noble then applies a similar comparison to Tesla’s autonomous driving ambitions, using reported figures tied to Waymo.
“Waymo is rumored to be going public at a $100 billion valuation. Imputing a similar valuation to robotaxis would imply a value of $30 per TSLA share.”
Turning to Tesla’s core automotive business, Noble argues declining fundamentals limit how much value can reasonably be assigned.
“Looking at comparables, the declining TSLA automotive business is worth maybe $60 billion, or $18 per TSLA share.”
He applies the same comparative approach to Tesla’s energy segment.
“Again looking at comparables, energy is worth perhaps $20 per share.”
Noble says adding those components together produces a valuation that is dramatically lower than where the stock trades today.
“All in that sums to a total valuation of $80 per TSLA share. The stock closed at $438.07 on Friday. While not precise, this back-of-the-envelope calculation is far more realistic than the fanciful irresponsible figures cited by the narrative promoting TSLA momentum investors who worship at the altar of price.”
Noble closes by invoking a classic market principle to frame the timing mismatch between valuation and sentiment.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
“Big Short” investor Michael Burry also believes that Tesla is ridiculously overvalued, noting that the firm keeps diluting its shareholders about 3.6% per year with no stock buyback.
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