Tesla (TSLA) is taking an unusually public step ahead of its fourth-quarter delivery report, and Gary Black thinks the timing matters.
In a series of posts on X, the former CIO of Goldman Sachs Asset Management points out that Tesla rarely distributes quarterly delivery consensus estimates via press-style communications, making the latest move stand out.
Black notes a gap between commonly cited expectations and the figures Tesla appears to be highlighting.
“Interestingly, Bloomberg consensus, which tends to be stale since it depends on analysts updating their estimates in a timely manner, shows a 4Q delivery consensus of 445,000, vs the IR-derived 4Q consensus of 423,000. Obviously, someone at TSLA wanted the IR-derived consensus to be distributed as widely as possible. This suggests to me 4Q actuals are more likely to be in the 420,000 range than the 445,000 range.”
Black says that a potential delivery shortfall needs to be viewed alongside a much bigger possible announcement tied to Tesla’s autonomous ambitions.
“Again, one has to align a potential 4Q delivery shortfall with the expectation that TSLA could announce by midnight Wednesday that they are removing some or all safety monitors from Austin robotaxis.”
According to Black, the removal of safety monitors would mark the next major inflection point for Tesla’s robotaxi program.
“The next major TSLA catalyst is removal of safety monitors in Robotaxis, which would signal an imminent scale up, and which Elon has targeted in Austin by year-end.”
But he notes that many investors believe this autonomy milestone is already reflected in Tesla’s stock price, citing its sharp recent rally.
“Many argue this is already discounted in TSLA’s stock price; hence, TSLA’s +47% surge over the past six months.”
Black adds that despite the surge, Tesla has lagged broader tech benchmarks year-to-date, as earnings expectations have been revised lower due to market share losses in electric vehicles. And even with progress toward unsupervised autonomy, Black remains cautious given Tesla’s valuation.
“We remain cautious about TSLA’s extended valuation, now the highest in the S&P 500 at a 2026 P/E of 213x, despite clear evidence that TSLA and a handful of competitors are on the verge of achieving unsupervised autonomy.”
In Black’s view, Tesla’s unusual communication strategy suggests the company may be preparing investors for weaker deliveries while shifting attention to a potentially far more consequential robotaxi announcement.
While the ex-Goldman CIO is concerned about TSLA’s extended valuation, a Wall Street strategist believes that the firm can realistically grow to match its multiples. Fitzgerald Group principal Keith Fitz-Gerald said Tesla is sitting at the convergence of five tech plays that could double the stock’s price “and then some” in five years.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at CapitalAI Daily are not investment advice. Investors should do their own due diligence before making any decisions involving securities, cryptocurrencies, or digital assets. Your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. CapitalAI Daily does not recommend the buying or selling of any assets, nor is CapitalAI Daily an investment advisor. See our Editorial Standards and Terms of Use.