Goldman Sachs says artificial intelligence may not be powering the economy as much as many believe, even as the technology starts to shape how companies think about hiring.
In a new episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges, the bank’s chief US economist, David Mericle, says the current AI boom has added far less to measured GDP growth than headlines suggest.
Mericle says the perceived AI-driven expansion in US output has been overstated, with data showing only a marginal contribution to overall economic growth.
“I think so far the impact on both GDP growth and the labor market has maybe been a little bit more limited than people sometimes think. On GDP growth, we estimate that AI has been contributing something like a tenth of a percentage point to measured GDP growth. There is an idea out there that AI has really been powering the majority of GDP growth, that without the boost from AI, the consequences of the tariffs would be a lot more dire, that the US economy would be barely growing. I don’t think that’s right.”
Mericle points to a spike in business investment earlier this year that many attributed to rising AI demand, arguing that the surge was likely driven by firms rushing to purchase hardware ahead of new import tariffs rather than by genuine technology deployment.
“Companies wanted to buy these already very expensive semiconductors and other goods without paying an extra 25%. And so there was a certain amount of front-loading of investment in these areas. A lot of that surge in business equipment investment to us looks like front-loading ahead of tariffs rather than a true pick-up-and-trend AI investment.”
On the labor front, Mericle says there are early signs of strain among computer science graduates and AI-adjacent fields, but little broad evidence that automation is suppressing hiring across the economy. Still, he says corporate caution about future workforce needs is beginning to surface.
“I think it is right to say that in applications where AI is pretty ready to go, this is already affecting the labor market. Companies are very focused on this, and even if the technology is not here today, the promise that it might be in six to twelve months might very well lead company management teams to think we should be cautious about hiring people who we might not need in six to twelve months because hiring and firing is costly.”
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